After Bitcoin’s meteoric rise to $100,000 in late 2024, the cryptocurrency’s recent pullback has analysts debating a potential reversal to $75,000. Currently trading at $93,700 in February 2025, Bitcoin has dropped 11% in just four days amid renewed global trade tensions. Technical analysts point to a concerning double top reversal pattern on the price charts. The recent appointment of David Sacks as White House A.I. and Crypto Czar has added uncertainty to the market outlook.
The options market data adds weight to the bearish outlook, showing the probability of Bitcoin reaching $75,000 by March has doubled from 10% to 22% in the past week. Prominent crypto figure Arthur Hayes joins other experts suggesting a drop to $75,000 before the next bullish phase begins. The recent implementation of new tariffs by former President Trump has sparked inflation concerns, contributing to the growing bearish sentiment. Recent market data shows a significant increase in the probability to 9.2% of Bitcoin falling below the $75,000 mark. The fixed supply cap of Bitcoin at 21 million coins could help prevent more dramatic price declines.
Derive analysts highlight how the tariffs are negatively impacting overall crypto market sentiment. Standard Chartered Bank’s research team aligns with this view, forecasting Bitcoin could test levels close to $75,000 in 2025. The strengthening U.S. dollar poses additional challenges for cryptocurrency values, according to Bitwise’s market analysis.
However, several potential catalysts could support Bitcoin’s recovery. The cryptocurrency market anticipates spot ETF approvals for various altcoins, which could enhance the sector’s legitimacy. Several U.S. states are exploring the possibility of adding Bitcoin to their strategic reserves. The Federal Reserve might resume quantitative easing to manage dollar strength, potentially benefiting crypto assets.
Despite the short-term bearish signals, most analysts maintain their long-term bullish outlook. They cite the 2024 halving event as a key factor that will increase Bitcoin’s scarcity. Many experts still project Bitcoin reaching between $150,000 and $300,000 by the end of 2025. InvestingHaven’s analysis suggests an average price of $115,000, though this forecast acknowledges the possibility of lower price points in the near term.
